Pro Football Picks Blog

PRO INFO SPORTS DID IT YET AGAIN on Friday with annother NFLX STAR SELECTION WINNER. It's been a perfect 3-0 start to this week of NFL preseason football, with 3 STAR, 4 STAR, & 5 STAR SELECTION WINNERS.

See Friday's 3 STAR SELECTION WINNER below as yet another example of the information, analysis, and advice PRO INFO SPORTS clients receive on a daily basis.

We also include a FREE STAR SELECTION for Saturday's Dallas @ Denver game. This is just 1 of SEVEN STAR SELECTIONS that PRO INFO SPORTS NFL clients are receiving for Saturday.

Also, don't forget that PRO INFO SPORTS is also RED-HOT on the bases, going 11-2 with out last 13 MLB STAR SELECTIONS!

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Here's Friday's PRO INFO SPORTS NFLX 3 STAR SELECTION WINNER:

August 15, 2008

8:00 PM ET

3 STAR SELECTION (3% of Bankroll)

Oakland +4 over TENNESSEE

Two teams seeking to build off preseason opening victories will meet on Friday night, when the Titans play host to the Raiders. Tennessee kicked off their preseason with a 34-13 pounding of the Rams, matching the highest point total in the league during the opening warm-up week. Quarterback Vince Young played sparingly, but did amass 35 of the team's whopping total of 340 rushing yards on a first-quarter scramble. Rookie Chris Johnson made his presence felt with a dazzling 66-yard touchdown run in which he went untouched.

Seeking to stop a Titans attack that racked up the most total offense in the league during Week 1, is an Oakland defense that was especially stingy in its preseason opener. The Raiders, who ranked 26th in NFL scoring defense a year ago, held the Bay Area rival 49ers out of the end zone for all four quarters in an 18-6 win, forcing 4 turnovers. Offensively, the Silver and Black got a long first look at first-round draft choice Darren McFadden, who rushed 12 times for 48 yards in the win, and got QB JaMarcus Russell a few snaps. Both young talents should see more extensive action against the Titans in this contest.

Oakland should be able to keep this game quite competitive, as coach Kiffin has been preparing and working his team hard in preparation of facing Tennessee.

"We're going to have a big test going into Tennessee against that team. If we don't have our stuff right and our guys aren't right, we'll get run out of that stadium real quick."

Call it a motivational ploy or an old coaching trick. Veteran guard Cooper Carlisle said Kiffin is calling it like it is.

"He's trying to get the best out of us," Carlisle said. "If you have bad days on Sundays, you get beat, and beat bad. If you want to be a great team, you can't have bad days."

Meanwhile, several factors are actually working against the Titans as a result of their impressive win over St. Louis last week. In the NFL preseason, we look to play AGAINST a team relaxed off a win and not concerned about another victory. Usually, a win in the preseason allows a coach to feel zero pressure the following week, and he can look at players. Generally, teams are weaker ATS after a win, and it intensifies with streaks, especially if it was a solid, all-around showing from the team. This is why we also like to play AGAINST a team off a superb performance by its 1st and 2nd-stringers. If a veteran unit dominated its counterpart in the previous game as the Titans did to the Rams, there’s a good chance they will be given a little less work in the next exhibition, and their focus may just not be the same.

Yes, the Titans were very impressive with their win, but this pointspread allows us to play AGAINST a team that won and covered last week due to a factor that is public knowledge and now has nil or negative line value. Don’t expect a clearly decisive factor that’s obvious to everyone to again be the decisive factor in the team’s next game. Players and teams off a great performance can relax and the line will be adjusted due to public perception.

Several of our POWER SYSTEMS demonstrate why it's a good idea to fade Tennessee here: In Week 2, play AGAINST a home team off a SU win as a home favorite of 2+ points or road favorite/pick ‘em/underdog of 1 point (33-12 ATS); Play AGAINST a favorite off a SU win of 20+ points (60-30 ATS); Play AGAINST a favorite off a SU win of 20+ points as a favorite of 2+ points (41-14 ATS).

We also have a POWER SYSTEM that favors Oakland here. In Week 2, play ON a road team off less than 7 SU wins last year vs. an opponent off 7+ wins last year (25-9 ATS).

We certainly like getting more than a FG's worth of points here, as we look for this game to be very close and covered by the underdog visitors.

PROJECTED FINAL MARGIN: OAKLAND BY 3 OVER TENNESSEE

ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: TENNESSEE 17 OAKLAND 16 WINNER!

Here's Saturday's FREE NFLX Money Play

Saturday, August 16, 2008

9:00 PM ET

1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)

DENVER -2 1/2 over Dallas

Two teams out for win #1 of the 2008 NLFX will meet up Saturday night, when the Broncos host the Cowboys in the second August warm-up outing for each squad.

Denver lost 19-16 at Houston in their preseason opener last week, while Dallas was upended 31-17 at San Diego.

Both starting QBs played well last week, although Tony Romo only threw 3 passes against the Chargers. The majority of the Dallas starters will play the first half of this preseason game against the Broncos; however, Romo, tight end Jason Witten, running back Marion Barber and wide receiver Terrell Owens will all take a seat after 1 quarter. This should turn the offense sluggish for the Cowpokes, as backup QB Brad Johnson, pushing 40, was an ugly 5-15 last week. Johnson's outing was so weak, Dallas owner Jerry Jones is wondering why he didn't grab another veteran QB in the offseason. Now, Dallas is sitting Romo down early to get some playing time for Johnson with the first-string offensive line.

One of our NFLX Handicapping strategies is to play AGAINST a team that is ignoring its strength to work on a weakness. During exhibition season it’s common for a polished team to work on a weak spot, which is what the Cowboys are doing here with Johnson. A team such as Dallas simply doesn’t need to work its strongest stuff while ignoring its weaknesses, which means we can expect the 'Boys to be much less less productive than usual.

This relates to another NFLX Handicapping Strategy of ours, which is:

Play AGAINST a team off a playoff season and/or with established veterans at most positions and few position battles going on, and that figures to be playoff bound again with basically the same team, especially early in the preseason.

Teams with most of their roster spots already filled usually lack quality free agent rookies. There simply aren’t a lot of positions open on those type of teams, making them unattractive to the better free agents – the ones with options to go to more than one training camp. Vets hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys mail it in during the preseason because they know the games are "meaningless".

The Broncos, on other hand, have a lot to prove in the preseason off another season without a playoff appearance. Denver is relishing the opportunity to go up against the vaunted "America's Team" as was shown this week when the 2 teams scrimmaged together. The team that went 7-9 last season loved matching up against a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

"I don't think Dallas was used to that type of practice," Broncos cornerback Dre Bly said.

"Those guys finished 13-3 last year, so they probably can afford to relax in practice and coast their way through certain drills. Us, we were 7-9, so we're on the ground right now and we're trying to get back up that hill."

A year ago, the Cowboys physically dominated the Broncos in their preseason game at Dallas. The Broncos got so frustrated, some vented afterward that the 'Boys had broken unwritten NFL rules by blitzing too much for a relatively meaningless exhibition. Denver hasn't forgotten about that treatment and will be quite motivated here. Another NFLX Handicapping Strategy we use is: Play ON a team looking to prove themselves against a conference champion or Super Bowl favorite. Teams looking for a confidence-building victory will have extra incentive to play well and beat a Super Bowl caliber team.

It's never easy for a team to come into Denver and leave with a win, especially during the exhausting preseason. This is why we look to play AGAINST a sea-level visiting favorite or very small underdog at a stadium one mile or more above sea level when all factors indicate a close game. The air is considerably thinner at 4000+ feet in elevation than those below 1000 feet. With the oxygen level greatly reduced at higher elevations, the heart and breathing rates increase to compensate. This is experienced as shortness of breath and early fatigue. It takes about 10 days for the body to completely acclimate to altitude, so low-altitude teams making road trips to the Rocky Mountains simply don't have enough time to fully adjust.

This is why it's no surprise that Denver is a powerful 10-0-1 ATS at home in NFLX play when not favored by more than 4 points. We look for the Broncos starters to be very competitive with the Cowboys starters and for the home team to have the edge from there with a better QB rotation and stamina, leading to a SU & ATS win.

PROJECTED FINAL MARGIN: DENVER BY 7 OVER DALLAS

Again, this is just 1 of SEVEN STAR SELECTIONS that PRO INFO SPORTS NFL clients are receiving for Saturday. Don't miss another PRO INFO SPORTS WINNER!

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This entry was posted on Friday, August 15th, 2008 at 11:34 pm and is filed under Pro Football Picks.You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.