Pro Football Picks Blog

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Pro Info Sports FREE Play

Sport / Type: NFL / FREE SELECTION (Week 7)

Game: Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (1:00 EST) (FOX TV)

Prediction: OVER 37.5

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

Analysis: Chicago will play host to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in the Second City. The last meeting between these two teams at this site was on October 14, 2007.

Minnesota’s Ryan Longwell connected on a 55-yard field goal as time expired to give the Vikings the 34 to 31 victory. In that game Vikings rookie RB Adrian Peterson had 224 yards rushing on the day.

The Bears suffered a 22 to 20 loss at the hands of the Falcons last week in Atlanta which put them at .500 for the year. The Bears went ahead 20-19 when Kyle Orton directed an 11-play, 77-yard drive that was capped by an 11-yard touchdown pass to Rashied Davis with 11 seconds left.

Chicago, though, chose to squib kick on the ensuing kickoff, which was returned to the Falcons' 44-yard line. After Matt Ryan completed a 26-yard pass with one second remaining, Jason Elam made a 48-yard field goal as time expired.

Vikings QB Gus Frerotte has won three of four starts versus the Bears. Last week against the Lions he passed for 296 yards in the win and has won three of four starts this season. RB Adrian Peterson is averaging 95.2 yards rushing per game since entering the NFL. In his last meeting versus the Bears he rushed for 224 yards on 20 carries for an 11.2 average with three touchdowns.

With the Bears defensive secondary banged up Vikings WR Bernard Berrian could have a huge day against his old team. Berrian was actually drafted in the 3^rd round of the 2004 NFL draft by the Bears and spent four seasons with the club. Berrian has 17 career TD’s and 12 of those have been for 30+ yards.

Bears QB Kyle Orton has won fourteen of twenty starts in the NFL. Orton is 10-2 in home starts and has a 6-2 record against the NFC North division. Chicago rookie RB Matt Forte leads NFL rookies with 459 yards rushing on the season. He ranks fourth in the NFL with 665 yards from scrimmage and leads the team with 27 receptions.

Pro Bowl PR-KR-WR Devin Hester has three touchdowns in the past three meetings against the Vikings. In those three he has two punt returns for TD’s of 45 and 89 yards and 1 TD reception of 81 yards. Hester has 15 career TD’s and averages 76.7 yards per TD.

Our Defensive Passer Ratings Index shows both teams can be beaten by the passing game. Chicago has a rating of 74.4 while the Tennessee Titans lead the league with a rating of 52.2. Minnesota’s defensive rating is 79.4 which is also well below the top teams in the league.

Technical support for our selection comes from both teams. We know that the Bears are 17-4 Over their last 21 at home. The Bears are 13-2 Over as a favorite after playing as a favorite. The Bears are 18-5 Over after playing as a favorite. The Bears are 8-1 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The Bears are 5-1 Over when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.

The Vikings are 15-4 Over after a win as a favorite in which they were losing at the half. The Vikings are 6-0 Over within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they punted at least eight times. The Vikings are 10-2 Over on the road after a win as a favorite in which they were losing at the half. The Vikings have gone “Over” in all three road games this season.

Data Base research has uncovered several technical situations that are active for today’s contest. NFL Teams are 22-9 Over as a dog when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a divisional opponent. NFL Teams are 16-4 Over when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up win. NFL Teams are 21-6 Over on the road after a win at home as a favorite in which they were losing at the half.

NFL Teams are 28-4 Over within 3 of pick the week after a straight up loss when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 23-8 Over within 3 of pick at home the week before their bye. NFL Teams are 45-19-1 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. NFL Teams are 23-8 Over at home the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. NFL Teams are 18-4 Over within 3 of pick when they are 500 after a straight up loss on the road. NFL Teams are 16-4 Over within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks.

In today’s game both teams have players that can change the outcome with one touch of the football. Chicago’s Devin Hester is always a threat to take one to the house and Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson has the same ability anytime he touches the ball. This game should see several big plays including special teams and that will lead to this game going “Over” the posted total.

Not only do we have the fundamental support for an “Over” we also have strong technical support so we will make this our 2* NFL Free Total Selection of the Week!

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Minnesota / Chicago Over 37.5

This entry was posted on Sunday, October 19th, 2008 at 3:48 am and is filed under Pro Football Picks.You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.